College Football Playoff Predictions: Who Makes the 12-Team CFP Field
The College Football Playoff picture is coming into focus as we approach the conference championship games. With the regular season wrapped up, the new 12-team format brings excitement, unpredictability, and a chance for more teams to compete for the national title.
Here’s everything you need to know about the current CFP predictions, the matchups, and what’s at stake during championship week.
Projected 12-Team CFP Bracket After Regular Season
Based on the latest US LBM Coaches Poll, here’s how the 12-team CFP field shapes up:
| Seed | Team | Record | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oregon | 12-0 | Likely the No. 1 seed, even with a championship loss. |
| 2 | Texas | 11-1 | SEC champion contender strong resume. |
| 3 | SMU | 11-1 | Projected AAC champion, securing an auto-bid. |
| 4 | Boise State | 11-1 | Currently the fourth-highest-ranked champion. |
| 5 | Penn State | 11-1 | The best-ranked at-large team avoids a first-round bye. |
| 6 | Notre Dame | 11-1 | The at-large contender with a strong resume. |
| 7 | Georgia | 10-2 | Defending champs; are still a powerhouse. |
| 8 | Tennessee | 10-2 | Strong offensive performance this season. |
| 9 | Ohio State | 10-2 | Missed the Big Ten title game but ranked high. |
| 10 | Indiana | 11-1 | The surprise team is in the top 12. |
| 11 | Alabama | 9-3 | Hopes to sneak in despite three losses. |
| 12 | Arizona State | 10-2 | I am on the bubble but currently holding a spot. |
First-Round Matchups (Dec. 20-21)
Here’s how the first round would look under this scenario:
| Matchup | Venue | Winner Faces |
|---|---|---|
| No. 5 Penn State vs. No. 12 Arizona State | Happy Valley (Penn State) | No. 4 Boise State |
| No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 11 Alabama | South Bend (Notre Dame) | No. 3 SMU |
| No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Indiana | Athens (Georgia) | No. 2 Texas |
| No. 8 Tennessee vs. No. 9 Ohio State | Knoxville (Tennessee) | No. 1 Oregon |
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These matchups offer compelling storylines, including Alabama traveling to Notre Dame and Ohio State clashing with Tennessee in a game loaded with offensive firepower.
Quarterfinal Matchups (Dec. 31-Jan. 1)
The winners of the first round will advance to the quarterfinals, facing one of the top four seeds that received first-round byes:
- Boise State awaits the Penn State-Arizona State winner.
- SMU will face the Notre Dame-Alabama winner.
- Texas will meet the Georgia-Indiana winner.
- Oregon will take on the Tennessee-Ohio State winner.
The quarterfinals will be hosted at traditional New Year’s Six bowl venues, adding more prestige to these games.
FAQs: Understanding the 12-Team CFP Format
How are the top four seeds decided?
The four highest-ranked conference champions automatically earn first-round byes per the CFP format rules. Oregon, Texas, SMU, and Boise State are in those positions this year.
What happens if one of the top four teams loses?
If Boise State or SMU loses, they risk being replaced as a top-four seed by Arizona State or another conference champion.
Can a three-loss team like Alabama make the CFP?
Yes. Under the 12-team format, at-large teams with strong resumes can still qualify, even with multiple losses.
When is the CFP National Championship?
The title game will be played on Monday, Jan. 20, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
What’s at Stake in Conference Championship Week?
Championship week will finalize the CFP bracket, with several key factors to watch:
- Top Four Seeds:
Oregon and Texas are all but locked in. Boise State and SMU must win their games to secure first-round byes. Arizona State could steal a top-four spot with a decisive victory or a Boise State loss. - Bubble Teams:
Alabama and Indiana are clinging to their spots in the bracket, hoping the right dominoes fall during championship weekend. - Seeding Shifts:
A big win by Penn State or Notre Dame could improve their seeding, while Boise State or SMU loss could shake up the rankings.
Key Dates for the College Football Playoff
| Round | Dates | Venues |
|---|---|---|
| First Round | Dec. 20-21 | Higher-seeded team’s home stadium. |
| Quarterfinals | Dec. 31-Jan. 1 | Former New Year’s Six bowl sites. |
| Semifinals | Jan. 9-10 | Neutral-site stadiums. |
| National Title | Jan. 20 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. |
The playoff race is heating up, with conference championship week approaching. Stay tuned as the final seeds are determined and the road to Atlanta becomes clearer.
